Image via mlive.com
by George Kerth
One of the most intriguing QB storylines heading into 2021 is that of Matthew Stafford. Stafford is joining Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams after being traded there for Jared Goff and a plethora of draft picks earlier this offseason. Will the move be good for Stafford? Well, let’s look at some numbers.
Stafford was one of the premier fantasy QBs for a 7 year stretch from 2011-2017. In that time he surpassed 4,000 passing yards every season, including 4 seasons with 25+ td’s. He then had a dramatic drop off in production in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. What changed?
The first thing I look at is the depth of his weapons. The 2017 lions featured 2 1,000 yard WR’s in Marvin Jones and Golden Tate as well as TE Eric Ebron who racked up 53 catches. Just 1 year later in 2018 he had just 1 1,000 yard WR in Jones, paired with a rookie WR in Kenny Golladay who was yet to break out and no notable pass catchers to go with them, and he had no more than 2 reliable pass catchers on the field at one time moving forward. Yes, you can argue he had Golladay, Jones, and Hockenson at his disposal in 2020, but Golladay played just 5 games in 2020.
Moving to a Rams offense with a much deeper pool of pass catchers gives me some hope for Stafford in 2021. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee could all have bigger years with Stafford throwing them passes.
While the coaching was never amazing in Stafford’s career, that could be a reason for his decline as well. Before the 2018 season, the Detroit Lions signed Matt Patricia to become their new head coach. That of course was the season Stafford started to see a steep decline in stats. It could be coaching and offensive schemes getting in his way, but it could also be the increased focus on the running game. While it was still unimpressive, the Lions went from 31st in the league in rushing attempts in 2017 to 18th in 2018. Obviously, this means less opportunities in the passing game, and given that the rushing attack was still ranked down in 23rd in yards, it sure did a great job of stalling the offense as well.
This could go one of two ways for Stafford in Los Angeles. The Rams are a run heavy team (7th in rush attempts in 2020) which could mean fewer opportunities for fantasy points in 2021, but they are one of the more efficient running games in the NFL (10th in rush yards in 2020). This could force teams to stack the box, leaving Stafford with more passing lanes. I tend to lean toward the latter.
The jury is definitely out on the resurgence of Matt Stafford in 2021. The talented QB is undoubtedly in a better offensive situation than he was the last 3 seasons, which I believe will turn into a successful 2021 campaign for the QB, but it is unclear if it will turn into top 10 fantasy success.
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